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California Expected To Be Warmer Than Usual This Winter

El Niño decided not to show up as expected, so forecasters are updating their winter weather outlook.

The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might be colder-than-normal December through February, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s annual Winter Outlook announced today from the agency’s new Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md.

“This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific.”

According to forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center, in the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:

  • Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.
  • Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.
  • Dryer-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.
  • Dryer-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
  • Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.

The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning these areas have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation, the forecasters said.

This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance, according to the forecasters.

Thunder October 18, 2012 at 09:43 PM
these clowns never get it right, flip a coin and you will get a more accurate prediction.
Joy October 18, 2012 at 11:21 PM
The NOAA's fact sheet (found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf) indicates a weak El Nino is still possible based on three months'(as recent as Oct 12th) data. Also, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), there is still a 50-55% chance of a weak El Nino (see http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-is-likely-to-be-weak-to-nonexistent-this-winter-climate-forecasters-say-15086). It sounds like, once again, the climatologists can't agree.

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