Housing Market Trends Offer Prediction On Presidential Outcome

Tuesday’s presidential election is expected to be close, with some saying Romney could win the popular vote, but Obama may very well squeak out a victory by winning the most electoral votes.

New analysis out today from Irvine-based RealtyTrac looks at swing state housing and asks this question: Based on whether the housing market in those states is better off or worse off than four years ago, who would win the election?

What the data found is that Romney would win the majority of swing states (5-3) and their electoral votes (58-37), but that Obama would win just enough of the swing states to squeak out a victory in the overall electoral vote count, 274-264. 

RealtyTrac looked at five housing market metrics in the eight key swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. The metrics were:

Average home prices in July 2012 (most recent data available) compared to July 2012. Six of the swing states posted a decline in average home prices over the four-year period, but Iowa and Ohio bucked that trend.

Unemployment rates in September 2012 compared to September 2008. Seven out of the eight states saw increases in their unemployment rates. The only exception was Ohio, where the unemployment rate of 7 percent in September 2012 was identical to the rate in September 2008.

Foreclosure inventory in September 2012 compared to September 2008. Inventory was down in five of the states: Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. Foreclosure inventory was higher than four years ago in Florida, Iowa and Wisconsin.

Foreclosure starts in September 2012 compared to September 2008. Foreclosure starts also were lower in five states compared to four years ago: Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. But in Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin foreclosure starts were higher.

Distressed sale share in the second quarter of 2012 compared to the second quarter of 2008. Distressed sales accounted for a bigger percentage of all sales in four of the swing states: Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. Distressed sales accounted for a smaller percentage of all sales in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.

How do you feel about the local housing market? Better or worse than four years ago and is it affecting your vote?