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Housing Market Trends Offer Prediction On Presidential Outcome

How do you feel about the local housing market? Better or worse than four years ago and is it affecting your vote?

Tuesday’s presidential election is expected to be close, with some saying Romney could win the popular vote, but Obama may very well squeak out a victory by winning the most electoral votes.

New analysis out today from Irvine-based RealtyTrac looks at swing state housing and asks this question: Based on whether the housing market in those states is better off or worse off than four years ago, who would win the election?

What the data found is that Romney would win the majority of swing states (5-3) and their electoral votes (58-37), but that Obama would win just enough of the swing states to squeak out a victory in the overall electoral vote count, 274-264. 

RealtyTrac looked at five housing market metrics in the eight key swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. The metrics were:

Average home prices in July 2012 (most recent data available) compared to July 2012. Six of the swing states posted a decline in average home prices over the four-year period, but Iowa and Ohio bucked that trend.

Unemployment rates in September 2012 compared to September 2008. Seven out of the eight states saw increases in their unemployment rates. The only exception was Ohio, where the unemployment rate of 7 percent in September 2012 was identical to the rate in September 2008.

Foreclosure inventory in September 2012 compared to September 2008. Inventory was down in five of the states: Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. Foreclosure inventory was higher than four years ago in Florida, Iowa and Wisconsin.

Foreclosure starts in September 2012 compared to September 2008. Foreclosure starts also were lower in five states compared to four years ago: Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. But in Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin foreclosure starts were higher.

Distressed sale share in the second quarter of 2012 compared to the second quarter of 2008. Distressed sales accounted for a bigger percentage of all sales in four of the swing states: Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. Distressed sales accounted for a smaller percentage of all sales in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.

How do you feel about the local housing market? Better or worse than four years ago and is it affecting your vote?

The Teller of Truth November 01, 2012 at 06:39 PM
No it has not affected my vote. (Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me!) No more Obummer! Romney 2012!
N1smo2go November 01, 2012 at 10:46 PM
Not affecting my vote either- didn't vote for him first time nor will I this time. As a matter of fact in my adult life, I have never voted for anyone with a "D", next to their name. Grew up in Chicago after parents exited the U.S. Army and moving from a strong- Ronald Reagan ran military, to a Democratic cess pool in Chicago, made it clear to me as a young child which way I wanted to live. I hated Chicago politics growing up. The city is beautiful but the politics is gutter trash. The lies, deceits, pay to play, learned it at a young age, as the peddlers would come around for election cycles but nothing got better. Yeah, hasn't affected my vote at all. Independents for Romney 2012.
Antonio November 02, 2012 at 07:40 PM
LAKE ELSINORE CITY COUNCIL VOTERS BEWARE On October 11, 2012, Michel Knight, owner of Trevi Entertainment Center, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit a crime and contributing funds under a false name. Knight’s conviction was the result of his illegal and unethical activities in a 2010 recall of a Lake Elsinore City Councilman who stood firm in requiring Knight to correct numerous building & safety and fire code violations at Trevi Entertainment Center. Also convicted in the recall was Enelida Caron an employee of Michel Knight. Caron testified that Steve Manos, a 2010 recall candidate, met with Knight 20 -25 times concerning the recall election . Manos also was the only recall candidate to support the illegal recall which cost taxpayers $50,000. Michel Knight will start to service his jail sentence in January 2013. Now, Steve Manos is running yet again for City Council along with William Park a former employee of Michel Knight. Park and Manos are also the only candidates who failed to file the required campaign finance reports. What are they hiding? Voters should reject Manos and Park as these two candidates are obviously under the control of outside greedy business interests. Their potential corrupting influence on city business would be devastating to our beautiful and improving community.
Michelle Deskin November 02, 2012 at 08:30 PM
The electoral vote shouldn't be counted anymore! It should be what the people want that matters....:-)
Revel18 November 02, 2012 at 08:38 PM
: p
Revel18 November 02, 2012 at 08:45 PM
I heard on Christian radio we support the candidate who is for pro life...the institute of marriage...and stands with Israel... That is clear to me its ROMNEY 2012!!!
Rafael November 05, 2012 at 04:21 AM
This article has too many deficient and mute points. They are comparing when the President was elected to now. As I he was president in 2008. I guess most of the economists commenting on this thread don't understand what a recession is. Of course 2008 figures are going to be better. That is when the Bush collapse began. Obama is no better but Romney will be much worse. I uttered these same words before George Bish was reelected. Again, I hope that I am wrong. Get ready for austerity measures, budget cuts and tax increases mixed with hyperinflation. No matter who wins, we stay within a corrupt capitalist system.

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